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EVIDENCE_FILE // CASE No. WP-2026

WordPress Market Share & Death Predictions: The Record

Every year-by-year figure, every predicted death, and what the share actually did — 2011 to 2026. Numbers are W3Techs share of all websites unless noted. Last verified: July 2026.

01 // THE_TREND_LINE

Market Share, 2011–2026

Share of all websites, including sites with no CMS. Source: W3Techs.
Year Share of ALL websites (W3Techs) Note
201113.1%
201215.8%
201317.4%
201421.0%
201523.3%
201625.6%
201727.3%
201829.2%
201932.7%
202035.4%
202139.5%
202243.2%growth plateaus
202343.1%first flat/slightly-down year
202443.5%peak (August 2024)
2025~43.2%December 2025; five quarters of slow decline begin
2026~41.5%July 2026, current; −1.3 pts in six months (Dec 2025 → May 2026)

Share of all websites, including sites with no CMS. Source: W3Techs. Figures are start-of-year unless noted. History compiled with reference to W3Techs history and Kinsta's market-share compilation.

02 // THE_FIELD

For Context

Nearest competitor: Shopify ~5.2% of all websites. (W3Techs, July 2026)

Then: Wix ~4.3% of all websites. (W3Techs, July 2026)

WordPress share among sites with a known CMS: ~59%. (W3Techs, July 2026)

Estimated live WordPress sites: ~38M active (BuiltWith) up to ~500M+ hostname-based estimates. The definitional spread is real — no single number is "the" count. (BuiltWith)

03 // CAUSE_OF_DEATH: DISPUTED

Predicted Deaths vs. Reality

2013–2014

"Drag-and-drop builders will kill WordPress."

The Wix and Squarespace ad-blitz era. WordPress went 17.4% → 21.0%.

2015–2016

"Medium and Ghost make WordPress obsolete for publishing."

WordPress went 23.3% → 25.6%. Medium later pivoted repeatedly; Ghost stayed niche.

2018

"Gutenberg will be the death of WordPress."

The block-editor backlash; ClassicPress fork launches. WordPress went 29.2% → 32.7% the following year.

2020

"Jamstack/headless kills the monolith."

The static-site and headless hype cycle. WordPress went 35.4% → 39.5%.

2022

"No-code platforms end WordPress."

Growth does plateau (~43%) — the first prediction wave with partial evidence.

2024

"The Automattic vs WP Engine conflict will collapse the ecosystem."

A governance crisis with real reputational damage. Share peaked at 43.5% that August, then plateaued.

2025–2026

"AI site builders make WordPress irrelevant."

The first wave coinciding with a measurable, sustained decline: 43.2% (Dec 2025) → ~41.5% (Jul 2026). Verdict: pending.

04 // THE_HONEST_PART

Yes, the Patient Is Losing Weight

W3Techs shows six consecutive quarters of decline, and the pace doubled: −1.3 pts in six months (Dec 2025 → May 2026) versus −0.6 pts across all of 2025. (W3Techs)

A second dataset agrees on direction. HTTP Archive (different methodology — ~9M sites via the Chrome UX Report) shows an earlier peak of 35.76% in July 2022 and ~33% in mid-2026. Two datasets, one direction.

"Declining is not dead. The gap to the nearest competitor is roughly 8×. Both things are true. That's the whole point of this page."

Decline coverage: Search Engine Journal · The Repository.

05 // METHODOLOGY

The Small Print

  • What W3Techs measures: the top ~10 million sites by traffic (its "relevant web"), and it counts sites with no CMS in the denominator — so WordPress's "all websites" figure is diluted by every static and hand-coded site online.
  • Why W3Techs and HTTP Archive disagree: W3Techs samples top-traffic sites; HTTP Archive samples ~9M origins from the Chrome UX Report. Different populations, different sampling — so the absolute numbers differ while the trend direction agrees.
  • Freshness: Last verified July 2026. Figures marked ~ are the latest published values and move monthly.

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